Inflation expectations depend currently on commodities (HG=F). Copper Futures have a strong relationship with inflation breakeven rates and are significantly dropping. This implies that inflation expectations have peaked and will dramatically fall in the short run. As Chinese policy has shifted, the fall in the renminbi is a very significant deflationary pressure for international prices, particularly industrial metals.

Lower Inflation will lead to lower Nominal Interest Rates (QQQ, BTC, TIPS). Risk Assets are currently heavily cointegrated with interest rates, and as inflation cools, rate hikes will start to be prices out and TIPS will outperform, causing risk assets such as tech stocks and cryptos to rally. We need markets to anticipate a Fed pivot in policy.
Date: 08/09/2022
Author: Jorge J. Garcia Rubio
DISCLAIMER: This research report has been prepared and distributed by the authors under Cresce Capital. This is ‘non-independent’ research and hence a marketing communication under the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) Conduct of Business Rules. It is not investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and is also not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Notwithstanding this, Cresce CapitaL has procedures in place to manage conflicts of interest, arising in the production of research, including prohibiting dealing ahead and Chinese Walls.
No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information in this research report and opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Any or all forward-looking statements in this research report may prove to be incorrect and such statements may be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Cresce Capital does not undertake any obligation to revise such forward-looking statements to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events or changed circumstances. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
This research report is designed for information purposes only. Neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. It is issued on the basis that Cresce Capital is not acting in a fiduciary capacity. Cresce Capital does not provide individually tailored investment advice in this research report and it does not constitute a ‘personnel recommendation’ as defined in the Glossary of the FCA’s Handbook. This research report is therefore, issued without regard to the recipient’s specific investment objectives and the value of any security, or the income derived from it, may fluctuate.
Certain securities and/or transactions give rise to substantial risks and are not suitable for all investors. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax and financial advisers and reach their own conclusions regarding the economic benefits and risks of the securities described herein and the legal, credit and tax aspects of any anticipated transaction. Where a security is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient, changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of the security.
Cresce Capital, its officers, employees and affiliates may have a financial interest in the security or securities described in this research report or otherwise buy, make markets in, hold trade or sell any security or securities described herein or provide services to issuers discussed herein. The security or securities mentioned herein may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This research report has not been designed for ‘Retail’ clients and is not intended for publication to ‘Retail’ clients. It is intended for issue to ‘Eligible’ counterparties and ‘Professional’ clients only (as those terms are defined by the Glossary of the FCA Handbook).
Cresce Capital salespeople, traders, other analysts and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. This research report is strictly confidential and is intended for the named recipient or recipients only. It is not be circulated or copied to any other party without the express permission of Cresce Capital. All rights reserved.
Risk assets are drive currently by real interest rates (TIPS). The correlation and cointegration between the Nasdaq and TIPs point to risk assets depending purely on nominal interest rates, and the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric. With any hint of a chance in stance markets will rally in the short run.

Inflation expectations depend currently on commodities (HG=F). Copper Futures have a strong relationship with inflation breakeven rates and are significantly dropping. This implies that inflation expectations have peaked and will dramatically fall in the short run. As Chinese policy has shifted, the fall in the renminbi is a very significant deflationary pressure for international prices, particularly industrial metals.

Lower Inflation will lead to lower Nominal Interest Rates (QQQ, BTC, TIPS). Risk Assets are currently heavily cointegrated with interest rates, and as inflation cools, rate hikes will start to be prices out and TIPS will outperform, causing risk assets such as tech stocks and cryptos to rally. We need markets to anticipate a Fed pivot in policy.
Date: 08/09/2022
Author: Jorge J. Garcia Rubio
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DISCLAIMER: This research report has been prepared and distributed by the authors under Cresce Capital. This is ‘non-independent’ research and hence a marketing communication under the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) Conduct of Business Rules. It is not investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and is also not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Notwithstanding this, Cresce CapitaL has procedures in place to manage conflicts of interest, arising in the production of research, including prohibiting dealing ahead and Chinese Walls.
No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information in this research report and opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Any or all forward-looking statements in this research report may prove to be incorrect and such statements may be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Cresce Capital does not undertake any obligation to revise such forward-looking statements to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events or changed circumstances. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
This research report is designed for information purposes only. Neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. It is issued on the basis that Cresce Capital is not acting in a fiduciary capacity. Cresce Capital does not provide individually tailored investment advice in this research report and it does not constitute a ‘personnel recommendation’ as defined in the Glossary of the FCA’s Handbook. This research report is therefore, issued without regard to the recipient’s specific investment objectives and the value of any security, or the income derived from it, may fluctuate.
Certain securities and/or transactions give rise to substantial risks and are not suitable for all investors. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax and financial advisers and reach their own conclusions regarding the economic benefits and risks of the securities described herein and the legal, credit and tax aspects of any anticipated transaction. Where a security is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient, changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of the security.
Cresce Capital, its officers, employees and affiliates may have a financial interest in the security or securities described in this research report or otherwise buy, make markets in, hold trade or sell any security or securities described herein or provide services to issuers discussed herein. The security or securities mentioned herein may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This research report has not been designed for ‘Retail’ clients and is not intended for publication to ‘Retail’ clients. It is intended for issue to ‘Eligible’ counterparties and ‘Professional’ clients only (as those terms are defined by the Glossary of the FCA Handbook).
Cresce Capital salespeople, traders, other analysts and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. This research report is strictly confidential and is intended for the named recipient or recipients only. It is not be circulated or copied to any other party without the express permission of Cresce Capital. All rights reserved.
Treasury rates have maxed out, Inflation Expectations are already moderating. All these effects have top inflation expectation (measured by 10Y Breakeven Rates), which implies that Treasury yields have topped. Data for August we believe will confirm the downside risk that exists for inflation. The Fed will start to voice it’s “Win over the Inflation War” in the next quarters.

Risk assets are drive currently by real interest rates (TIPS). The correlation and cointegration between the Nasdaq and TIPs point to risk assets depending purely on nominal interest rates, and the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric. With any hint of a chance in stance markets will rally in the short run.

Inflation expectations depend currently on commodities (HG=F). Copper Futures have a strong relationship with inflation breakeven rates and are significantly dropping. This implies that inflation expectations have peaked and will dramatically fall in the short run. As Chinese policy has shifted, the fall in the renminbi is a very significant deflationary pressure for international prices, particularly industrial metals.

Lower Inflation will lead to lower Nominal Interest Rates (QQQ, BTC, TIPS). Risk Assets are currently heavily cointegrated with interest rates, and as inflation cools, rate hikes will start to be prices out and TIPS will outperform, causing risk assets such as tech stocks and cryptos to rally. We need markets to anticipate a Fed pivot in policy.
Date: 08/09/2022
Author: Jorge J. Garcia Rubio
WOULD LIKE TO KNOW MORE?
Suscribe and receive our monthly market analysis directly to your email.
DISCLAIMER: This research report has been prepared and distributed by the authors under Cresce Capital. This is ‘non-independent’ research and hence a marketing communication under the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) Conduct of Business Rules. It is not investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and is also not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Notwithstanding this, Cresce CapitaL has procedures in place to manage conflicts of interest, arising in the production of research, including prohibiting dealing ahead and Chinese Walls.
No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information in this research report and opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Any or all forward-looking statements in this research report may prove to be incorrect and such statements may be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Cresce Capital does not undertake any obligation to revise such forward-looking statements to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events or changed circumstances. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
This research report is designed for information purposes only. Neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. It is issued on the basis that Cresce Capital is not acting in a fiduciary capacity. Cresce Capital does not provide individually tailored investment advice in this research report and it does not constitute a ‘personnel recommendation’ as defined in the Glossary of the FCA’s Handbook. This research report is therefore, issued without regard to the recipient’s specific investment objectives and the value of any security, or the income derived from it, may fluctuate.
Certain securities and/or transactions give rise to substantial risks and are not suitable for all investors. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax and financial advisers and reach their own conclusions regarding the economic benefits and risks of the securities described herein and the legal, credit and tax aspects of any anticipated transaction. Where a security is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient, changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of the security.
Cresce Capital, its officers, employees and affiliates may have a financial interest in the security or securities described in this research report or otherwise buy, make markets in, hold trade or sell any security or securities described herein or provide services to issuers discussed herein. The security or securities mentioned herein may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This research report has not been designed for ‘Retail’ clients and is not intended for publication to ‘Retail’ clients. It is intended for issue to ‘Eligible’ counterparties and ‘Professional’ clients only (as those terms are defined by the Glossary of the FCA Handbook).
Cresce Capital salespeople, traders, other analysts and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. This research report is strictly confidential and is intended for the named recipient or recipients only. It is not be circulated or copied to any other party without the express permission of Cresce Capital. All rights reserved.
Real Interest Rates Top


Treasury rates have maxed out, Inflation Expectations are already moderating. All these effects have top inflation expectation (measured by 10Y Breakeven Rates), which implies that Treasury yields have topped. Data for August we believe will confirm the downside risk that exists for inflation. The Fed will start to voice it’s “Win over the Inflation War” in the next quarters.

Risk assets are drive currently by real interest rates (TIPS). The correlation and cointegration between the Nasdaq and TIPs point to risk assets depending purely on nominal interest rates, and the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric. With any hint of a chance in stance markets will rally in the short run.

Inflation expectations depend currently on commodities (HG=F). Copper Futures have a strong relationship with inflation breakeven rates and are significantly dropping. This implies that inflation expectations have peaked and will dramatically fall in the short run. As Chinese policy has shifted, the fall in the renminbi is a very significant deflationary pressure for international prices, particularly industrial metals.

Lower Inflation will lead to lower Nominal Interest Rates (QQQ, BTC, TIPS). Risk Assets are currently heavily cointegrated with interest rates, and as inflation cools, rate hikes will start to be prices out and TIPS will outperform, causing risk assets such as tech stocks and cryptos to rally. We need markets to anticipate a Fed pivot in policy.
Date: 08/09/2022
Author: Jorge J. Garcia Rubio
WOULD LIKE TO KNOW MORE?
Suscribe and receive our monthly market analysis directly to your email.
DISCLAIMER: This research report has been prepared and distributed by the authors under Cresce Capital. This is ‘non-independent’ research and hence a marketing communication under the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) Conduct of Business Rules. It is not investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and is also not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Notwithstanding this, Cresce CapitaL has procedures in place to manage conflicts of interest, arising in the production of research, including prohibiting dealing ahead and Chinese Walls.
No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information in this research report and opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Any or all forward-looking statements in this research report may prove to be incorrect and such statements may be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Cresce Capital does not undertake any obligation to revise such forward-looking statements to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events or changed circumstances. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
This research report is designed for information purposes only. Neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives. Investors should consider this research report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. It is issued on the basis that Cresce Capital is not acting in a fiduciary capacity. Cresce Capital does not provide individually tailored investment advice in this research report and it does not constitute a ‘personnel recommendation’ as defined in the Glossary of the FCA’s Handbook. This research report is therefore, issued without regard to the recipient’s specific investment objectives and the value of any security, or the income derived from it, may fluctuate.
Certain securities and/or transactions give rise to substantial risks and are not suitable for all investors. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax and financial advisers and reach their own conclusions regarding the economic benefits and risks of the securities described herein and the legal, credit and tax aspects of any anticipated transaction. Where a security is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient, changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of the security.
Cresce Capital, its officers, employees and affiliates may have a financial interest in the security or securities described in this research report or otherwise buy, make markets in, hold trade or sell any security or securities described herein or provide services to issuers discussed herein. The security or securities mentioned herein may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This research report has not been designed for ‘Retail’ clients and is not intended for publication to ‘Retail’ clients. It is intended for issue to ‘Eligible’ counterparties and ‘Professional’ clients only (as those terms are defined by the Glossary of the FCA Handbook).
Cresce Capital salespeople, traders, other analysts and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. This research report is strictly confidential and is intended for the named recipient or recipients only. It is not be circulated or copied to any other party without the express permission of Cresce Capital. All rights reserved.